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Oil Market Overview & Its Effects on the Sikorsky S-92A

I recently had a conversation with a marketing member of one OEM.  We were in agreement that many of us did not see a continuation of low activity for this long.  We asked ourselves, "What happened in the last 18 months to cause the continuing excess of heavy helicopter inventory?"  Our past reasoning was that oil prices would return as demand would surely increase.  In an article published in Forbes on August 28, 2016, Jude Clemente argues that world oil demand will continue to increase.  It has steadily increased even through the 2008 recession.  So what did we miss? 

 



The Decline of OPECs Pricing Influence

OPEC Oil RigsAmerica continues to be the largest consumer of petroleum products with the European Union close behind. China is third but has the fastest growing demand.  The United States consumes about 19,400,000 barrels of oil daily, the EU is at about 18,000,000, and China is at about 12,000,000.Everyone else is far behind, but next is India at about 4,200,000.  India has the second largest population in the world with an estimated 358,000,000 under the age of 15.  Mr. Clemente says this is the biggest reason that India’s economy and thus petroleum product use will continue to rise rapidly in the coming years.
 
In an article from Fuel Fix, a subsidiary publication of the Houston Chronicle, dated March 2016, Jennifer Hiller points out that the US dependence on foreign oil has declined dramatically.  We import about 25% (this figure changes depending on definition and point of view), the lowest point since 1970.  We were still importing over 50% until 2011.  America’s demand for oil peaked in 2005 at a daily rate of 20,500,000 bbls.  We are now using 19,000,000 bbls of oil daily.  Most of the EU countries are showing the same trend of peaking some time ago and are now showing lower levels of daily demand.  Regardless, that is still a considerable level of petroleum product usage.

 

In an article from Fuel Fix, a subsidiary publication of the Houston Chronicle, dated March 2016, Jennifer Hiller points out that the US dependence on foreign oil has declined dramatically.  We import about 25% (this figure changes depending on definition and point of view), the lowest point since 1970.  We were still importing over 50% until 2011.  America’s demand for oil peaked in 2005 at a daily rate of 20,500,000 bbls.  We are now using 19,000,000 bbls of oil daily.  Most of the EU countries are showing the same trend of peaking some time ago and are now showing lower levels of daily demand.  Regardless, that is still a considerable level of petroleum product usage.

 

2013 World Oil Reserves by RegionOverall demand for oil will, and has, gone up so why are prices staying at the $50-$52 per barrel range? One influence affecting where pricing sits today is the many sources of cheap-to-recover oil.  In 1973, the eleven nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shook the world by placing an oil embargo on the countries in the West who supported Israel.  The members of OPEC, with the exception of Venezuela, were Islamic nations.  Solidarity was never a question.  OPEC had almost ⅔ of the then-estimated raw petroleum reserves of the World.  Forty years later in 2013, estimated reserves had gone down to 49% as shown in the chart.

 



There are 13 member nations now, and relations between the member nations are very shaky.  Indonesia dropped out last year in disagreement with the “core” members.  There are 117 countries producing oil today.  Out of the top 25 oil producing countries, 16 are non-OPEC member nations.  
 
 Where are the largest reserves today?  Well, it depends on who is reporting the data and what definition of “proven reserves” is being used.  There is no doubt that OPEC sits on a significant portion of the World’s oil.  North America has surpassed Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Venezuela in estimated reserves.  Estimates of China’s reserves seem to go up every year.  Russia certainly has a significant amount of oil reserves.   A majority of world reserves are now outside OPEC.  

 

Exploitation of Shale Oil Reserves

Most Prolific Shale Oil Sites The main reason that North America now has such large reserves is the viability of oil recovered by hydraulic fracturing.  It was once thought that the price per barrel of oil had to be about $100 to make oil recovered by “fracking” economically viable.  That was in 2011.  The technology and techniques have improved every year.  Oil prices had to be at $70 for fracking to be economical in 2014.  In 2016 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) commissioned HIS Global Inc. (HIS) to perform a study of upstream drilling and production costs.  The report found that average well drilling and completion costs last year had fallen 25 to 30 percent below 2012 prices – the high point of the last decade.


 
It continues to get cheaper each year.  For instance, when the price of oil got to $56 a barrel, many owners of fracked oil wells turned on the spigots, and US demand for imported crude oil dropped.  The price for a barrel of crude dropped to $50 and has “recovered” to $51.  Oil recovered from “fracking” is termed “tight oil.”  Tight oil comes out of the ground cleaner meaning it is cheaper to refine into usable petroleum products than Brent Crude or May West Texas Crude (heretofore, the cleanest recovered oils).  Despite the low price of oil, rig counts in the US are increasing. 

 



The North Sea reserves are located far offshore and in deep water.  Weather rapidly changes and can be very severe.  It increases the cost to discover oil and then to recover oil.  The Brazilian and Angola reserves are the next highest cost to recover because their reserves lay offshore under a sometimes two-kilometer thick “Presalt” layer.  It is true that those costs have gone down as technology and techniques have improved, but any “deep water” exploration and recovery carries a higher cost than shallow water and land recovery oil wells.

 

The Effect on the Used Sikorsky S-92A Market

S92 Oil Rig Approach There were significant changes to helicopter values during our March 31, 2017, pricing meeting.  The aircraft that had the most significant movement was the Sikorsky S-92 A.  This is mostly due to the paucity of contracts in the North Sea.  Obviously, the plunge in world oil prices in 2014 and the continuing low pricing per barrel of oil are the main reasons for the low helicopter activity.  Another factor is the introduction of the “Super Medium” H175 and the AW189 in an already saturated market.  The cost savings of leasing, buying, and operating the H175 or AW189 is giving them an edge compared over other heavies.  There has also been an increased use of AW-139s where they can be employed over other aircraft.  Regardless, any way you look at it, contract activity is very low and some available contracts are now requiring alternatives to the S-92A.



Because of the distance required to fly to any oil well, the S-92A is used almost exclusively in the North Sea, to a lesser extent the Brazilian Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.  The older S-92A values are suffering from, well, age.  Many of the new contracts in the North Sea will call for newer S-92As because of the requirements of oil companies and/or unions.  Renewed production of the S-92A will face stiff competition because some of the contract renewals are asking for mediums and super mediums rather than the S-92A for cost savings.  As a consequence, we see some used S-92A’s being returned to the banks at the end of their contracts.  With virtually no secondary market for this aircraft, there has been little interest in what is coming onto the market.  The trend of decreased values will likely continue until oil prices recover to a level that is profitable in the North Sea or the values of the S-92A reach a level that competes with the Super Mediums. 

 

North Sea

Oil prices may not have to recover as much as some fear to bring more activity to the North Sea. The big players (ExxonMobile, Shell, BP, Talisman, Hess) need a large profit margin to explore and operate.  The smaller players, for example, Wintershall, Delek, and Chyrsaor, do not need a large exploration budget and they are willing to work on a smaller profit margin. They don’t look for oil.  They exploit “spent” oil tracts.  They don’t need the per barrel price for oil to be as high as the “large” oil companies.  Wintershall’s Maria field was drilled the first time in the 1980s by Statoil.  Wintershall acquired the rights recently and by combining pipelines and consolidating oil rigs, plan to continue to extract oil profitably.  This is the possible future for “played out” oil fields throughout the North Sea.  So, about $55-$60 a barrel could bring a return of some new contracts.  The Maria field is about 200kms off the Norwegian Coast.  Older helicopters would not be a problem as these operators need a tighter margin (read cheaper helicopter rates) to be profitable. 

 

Technological advances will continue to drive down drilling cost on and offshore.  As the world settles into the shift of sustained low ppb oil, the adaptive S-92A helicopter market will eventually find it's place in this new era. 

 

 

 About Ben Moore, ASA - Mr. Moore is a staff appraiser with HeliValue$, Inc.  He specializes in helicopter parts inventories, legacy, Russian made, and military helicopters.  He was a part-time onsite verification representative of HeliValue$, Inc. from 1984 to 2007.  He developed the appraisal programs for inventories, the S64 “Aircrane”, the Russian helicopters MI-8 & KA-32-117, the UH-60 and the CH-47D.  He is also a part-time Line Pilot in Command for Helicopter Transport Services, Inc.

 

As an Instructor Pilot, Mr. Moore has accumulated over 8,000 flight hours of instruction.  He has given instruction to Vietnamese, Iranian, Ecuadorian, Peruvian and Canadian pilots in both flight and ground instruction.  He has taught flight and ground training to Ecuadorian and Peruvian Pilots in Spanish.  He teaches a full transition course for both the S-58 and the S-61 helicopters.

 

About HeliValue$, Inc. -   Continuously published since 1979, The Official Helicopter Blue Book® is the only blue book in the world devoted entirely to helicopters. HeliValue$ is Most Trusted World Wide®in the helicopter industry for resale pricing, technical specifications, and maintenance costs. Their only business is helicopter values: the subscription sales of their publications, their desktop appraisals, onsite asset verification, technical and operational analyses, residual projections, and related reports concerning the values of more than 200 different commercial models and their components.

 

General Market Comments - Brighter Horizons?

There has been some positive news recently, so it’s starting to feel like the dive into the abyss may have finally reached max depth for the helicopter market.   Helicopter transactions are still limited, but buyer activity has picked up over this last quarter.  Resale values have leveled off and reported transactions this quarter are at or above published Blue Book values an indication that things may be turning around.  There are still plenty of older aircraft remaining on the market, and they will likely sell at below average values.  With so many bargains out there now is the time to buy.


 
In addition to leveling values and increased activity in the resale market, tenders coming out are bringing some hope for many of the aircraft parked during the downturn.  Efforts to fill new contract obligations has potential to increase new helicopter orders as well. 


 
While news of EASA recently lifting the grounding of the H225 and AS332L2 aircraft is welcome news for Airbus, it doesn’t come without some trepidation.  AIBN has yet to release their final report into the investigation which is making most operators hesitant to attempt putting the aircraft back into service.  EASA’s lifting is at least a positive move in the right direction for Airbus.   


 
It is a pleasure to say that during this quarter’s pricing meeting we have only made adjustments to four helicopters in The Official Helicopter Blue Book ®. The AS365N2, AS365N3, EC145T1, and the S61N.  We have also added resale pricing pages for the Boeing CH47Dand the Sikorsky UH-60A.

We’re sure everyone is aware of the big events in recent months impacting the helicopter market: the Airbus H225 crash and grounding of the H225 and AS-332L2 Super Pumas, and CHC’s swiftly-following bankruptcy announcement.  Together they spur many complicated questions about the future of the Super Pumas and the resale market in general, especially for offshore oil support helicopters. 
 
Since the grounding of the Super Pumas, demand for the S-92A and AW139s has increased noticeably.  Operators hesitant to purchase aircraft with the current state of the oil and gas industry are turning to lessors.  This demand for alternate aircraft has allowed lessors to proactively find new homes for aircraft that were originally slotted for return in the CHC bankruptcy process.  With at least 98 of CHC’s fleet, and possibly up to 155, on the chopping block, this is a potential bright spot that may result in a less chaotic and overcrowded market as the CHC court-approved assets are returned or abandoned. 
 
For now, HeliValue$ has made the decision to switch off the Blue Book resale pricing pages for the H225 and AS-332L2.  We have been working closely with the OEM, lessors, operators, financial institutions, and brokers to gather as much information as possible to help us determine the best way to handle the questions regarding the current values and the future of this model. At this moment, there is no resale value, since there are no resale buyers. 
 
We anticipate some resolution to the current Super Puma market uncertainty once the AIBN determines the cause of the accident and Airbus determines the repair that may be needed.  Meanwhile, there is plenty of speculation, both around the world and here inside HeliValue$, but until the investigation has been completed the future is too uncertain to draw a reliable conclusion. 
 
The rest of the market has been fairly quiet since our last update.  There continues to be a glut of aircraft available.  This is especially true in the single light turbine market.  There has been some transaction activity in the single light turbine market and in some medium twins operating in EMS or VIP roles. 
 
On the bright side, if you’re ready to invest in the helicopter market, today is an awesome day to become a buyer.  You have your choice of the best helicopters in the world at the lowest prices of all time.  Allow yourself a large risk margin and a 20-year time frame, because we’re not at the bottom of the barrel yet.  But the effervescent Clark McGinn (of Waypoint Leasing) has the right idea: the helicopter market is highly cyclical and will rebound, even if Sharon is predicting it won’t be until March 11, 2018, at 10:17 AM.  We might not see $100/bbl oil again before she retires (this milestone seems to come around every 30 years or so, in inflation-adjusted currency, and she’s been “privileged” to see two of these milestones already), but there are still no viable alternatives to helicopter transport for offshore oil support, patient arrivals direct to a hospital, or pinpoint fire suppression. None of these jobs are UAV-compatible, nor is there any better way to accomplish them than a helicopter. 


For those following the oil and gas market here are some reports that may be of interest.

The US Energy Information Administration August Short Term Energy Outlook
The International Energy Agency August Oil Market Report

HeliValue$, Inc. held its third quarter Blue Book pricing review on October 3, 2016.  Resale pricing adjustments were made for the models listed below.  To view pricing adjustments, login to your account and visit the models' resale trends page.
 
Airbus -  AS365N2, AS365N3, EC145T1
Sikorsky S-61N

New pages added to the Blue Book:
Sikorsky UH-60A
Boeing CH-47D
 
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Resale pricing adjustments are based on actual sales transactions and current market conditions such as overall trends in asking prices, increase or decrease in supply, demand, and sales volume. We obtain sales pricing data from owners and operators, lenders and lessors, brokers and equipment manufacturers worldwide.
 
While we do review all models each quarter, frequently traded models are updated as soon as they begin to show variation from the previously published values.  Stay up-to-date on resale pricing changes by purchasing an annual subscription to The Official Helicopter Blue Book®.

HeliValue$, Inc. held its third quarter Blue Book pricing review on October 15, 2015.  Resale pricing adjustments were made for the models listed below.  To view pricing adjustments, login to your account and visit the models' resale trends page. 

  • Agusta - A109C, A109E, AW109SP,AW119K,AW119Ke
  • Airbus -  AS332L, AS332L-1, AS332L-2, AS350B2, AS350B3, AS365N1, AS365N2, AS365N3, EC155B, EC155B1, EC225LP
  • Bell - 206L-1,206L-3,212,412EP,429,430
  • MD - 600N
  • Sikorsky - S76C++

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Resale pricing adjustments are based on actual sales transactions and current market conditions such as overall trends in asking prices, increase or decrease in supply, demand, and sales volume. We obtain sales pricing data from owners and operators, lenders and lessors, brokers and equipment manufacturers worldwide.  With the information gathered from many different resources, we review each model covered in The Official Helicopter Blue Book®

While we do review all models each quarter, frequently traded models are updated as soon as they begin to show variation from the previously published values.  Stay up-to-date on resale pricing changes by purchasing an annual subscription to The Official Helicopter Blue Book® www.helivalues.com

 

content500General Market Comments

In general, most of the reports HeliValue$ has received indicate a slow sales quarter.  Low oil prices continue to have an impact, predominantly on the heavy class of helicopters such as the EC225 and the S-92A. There have been reports of some operators parking the larger aircraft waiting for oil prices to recover.  While there has been an overall slowdown in the offshore market, the majority of the impact is on the exploration side of the industry. 
 
The medium class helicopters have also been affected by oil prices, especially the older aircraft.  Inventory of medium and light twin turbine helicopters has remained steady but still slightly bloated.  Both classes suffer from a lack of interested buyers mostly because there is limited or no secondary market for most of these aircraft.  This is particularly true for the older, high airframe time aircraft.
 
Light single turbine aircraft such as the AS350 series of helicopters have seen some increased sales activity in the third quarter leveling out the resale market inventory.  Older models of this class are still moving off the market much slower than newer models. Asking prices and sales prices continue to fall particularly for the older aircraft.    
 
The light piston aircraft inventory has slightly decreased through the third quarter, and sales pricing remains steady.
 
While there have been some sales, the corporate/VIP market over the past two years for all used helicopters has almost completely stopped trading.  This is the main cause of the increased resale market inventory, especially in the light single and twin turbine markets.  

 
We are interested in any recent sales transactions you would like to report. Every time you buy, sell, lease, finance, or trade a helicopter, and report this information to us, you help update The Official Helicopter Blue Book®. Sales transactions can be reported by emailing lindsay.moore@helivalues.com.  All information received is held in the strictest confidence and is only used for our internal review.  The next pricing review is scheduled for January 6, 2016.

Evaluating a Report for USPAP Compliance

 

 

New Online Seminar!

Evaluating a Report for USPAP Compliance 

A Special Offering for Lenders and Other Non-Appraisers

Lending professionals and other non-appraisers will gain a better understanding of the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice (USPAP) and its applicability to the lending process through this online seminar created by The Appraisal Foundation in partnership with McKissock.  The seminar provides insight about appraisers’ USPAP-related obligations in an assignment and arms the underwriter with knowledge of how to best evaluate an appraisal report for USPAP compliance. 

This program is not intended for appraisers or to provide training for those performing appraisal review (as defined in USPAP) assignments.

Register for the seminar here.

Feel free to pass this along to your colleagues in the lending community!

Questions?  Please contact Paula Seidel at paula@appraisalfoundation.org.

HeliValue$, Inc. held its second quarter Blue Book resale pricing review on July 20, 2015.  The models affected are listed below.  If you are a current subscriber, please login to your account and visit the resale trends page for each model to view the adjustments.

 

Agusta AW109E, AW109SP, AW139.
Airbus AS350B2, AS365N2, EC225LP.
Bell 206L-3, 214B, 407GX, 427, 429, 430.
Kaman K-1200.
Robinson R22 Beta II, R66.
Sikorsky S92A

 

General Market Comments
Light singles like the Bell 206L-4 and 407 are a seeing a little boost in the short range offshore market.  With the slowing of new deep water offshore exploration contracts, we are seeing some of the mediums (AW139 & B412EP) and the heavies (S92 & EC225LP) being parked until oil prices recover.  Older aircraft such as the Airbus AS332L, AS332L1 and L2, Sikorsky 61N, and the Bell 212 are being replaced with newer aircraft as they become available.  These older aircraft are being moved to an almost nonexistent secondary marketplace.  The Airbus AS350 series and older Bell 407 models continue to have a depressed market.  We have seen some AS332, AS350 series, and AS355 series being parted out due to very low demand and declining resale prices.  The used corporate/VIP market continues to be very weak.

 

Resale pricing adjustments are based on actual sales transactions and current market conditions such as overall trends in asking prices and increase or decreases in supply, demand, and sales volume. We obtain sales pricing data from owners and operators, lenders and lessors, brokers and equipment manufacturers worldwide.  With the information gathered from many different resources, we review each model covered in The Official Helicopter Blue Book®. 

 

While we do review all models each quarter, frequently traded models are updated as soon as they begin to show variation from the previously published values.  Stay up-to-date on resale pricing changes by purchasing an annual subscription to The Official Helicopter Blue Book®.  


 
We are interested in any recent sales transactions you would like to report. Every time you buy, sell, lease, finance, or trade a helicopter, and report this information to us, you help update The Official Helicopter Blue Book®. Sales transactions can be reported by emailing lindsay.moore@helivalues.com. All information received is held in the strictest confidence and is only used for our internal review.  The next pricing review is scheduled for October 5, 2015.

Carol Busch, AM, of HeliValue$, Inc., has been elected Secretary of the Wisconsin Chapter of the American Society of Appraisers. This announcement comes just two months after the announcement of HeliValue$' President Sharon Desfor's elected position of International Secretary/Treasurer.

 

Sharon Desfor, HeliValue$' President and ASA's International Secretary/Treasurer, chuckled as she added, "I didn't even know that Carol was running for office, and now we have two ASA Secretaries in one company. I sincerely applaud Carol for her volunteerism and for putting her efforts into such a valuable organization as ASA."

 

Carol Busch, AM, has been with HeliValue$ for twenty-eight years holding several important positions. Most notable may have been her term as editor of The Official Helicopter Blue Book® from 1993 to 2014. Over the years, Carol has also served as HeliValue$ website manager, public relations manager, events manager, client services, and AR/AP. She now holds the position of Associate Appraiser with over 700 helicopter appraisals completed since April 2013. Carol obtained her American Society of Appraisers accreditation in June 2013 and is on track to receive her senior accreditation status in June 2016. She will be a fourth addition to the HeliValue$ ASA senior accrediated staff.  Carol also recently spoke at the 2015 NAFA conference presenting "Will Oil Prices Really Affect the Helicopter Market?"

 

Carol flashed her trademark grin when she heard the news, and told us, "I'm excited to be a part of the Wisconsin Chapter and promoting ASA's high standards."

 

About American Society of Appraisers

The American Society of Appraisers is a world renowned and respected international organization devoted to the appraisal profession. ASA is the oldest and only major appraisal organization designating members in all appraisal specialties. www.appraiser.org

 

HeliValue$ will hold its second quarter Blue Book resale pricing review on July 20.  Resale pricing adjustments are based on actual sales transactions and current market conditions such as overall trends in asking prices and increase or decreases in supply, demand, and sales volume. We obtain sales pricing data from owners and operators, lenders and lessors, brokers and equipment manufacturers worldwide. With the information gathered from many different resources, we review each model covered in The Official Helicopter Blue Book®. While we do review all models each quarter, frequently traded models are updated as soon as they begin to show variation from the previously published page. Stay up-to-date on resale pricing changes by subscribing to The Official Helicopter Blue Book® www.helivalues.com.

 

The Official Helicopter Blue Book®. Sales transactions can be reported by emailing Lindsay Moore or via our online form here.  All information received is held in the strictest confidence and is only used for our internal review.

 


 

Congratulations! Sharon Desfor ASA International Secretary/Treasurer - Elect

 

Sharon moves from MTS Governor to her newly elected position of International Secretary/Treasurer. Sharon will focus on promoting communication and transparency between members and leadership, members' needs whether those are direct benefits or government lobbying, and making ASA relevant on a global basis.

 

"Sharon has a strong commitment to the education of all appraisal professionals.  We are excited that she will have the opportunity to make the ASA even better." - Jason Kmiecik, VP of Operations, HeliValue$, Inc.

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